# Anthropic's 2030 scenarios project U.S. output 1.6% to 32.4% above a no-AI path, with knowledge-worker unemployment near 18% in the extreme case

Average wages rise in all three scenarios, but gains concentrate outside knowledge work. Stability AI founder Emad Mostaque argued this week that capital will "hire GPUs" instead of labor.

- Published: 2026-10-13T06:13:53.502Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-10-13/anthropic-s-2030-scenarios-project-u-s-output-1-6-to-32-4-ab
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research (Economic Scenarios)](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research (Societal Impacts)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts), [Polylog editors](https://polylog.news), [The Next Web](https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-ai-economic-scenarios-2030), [Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/anthropic-modeled-what-ai-could-do-by-2030-the-economy-gets-32-percent-richer-while-workers-get-left-behind)

Anthropic's economics team published an interactive model of how AI may affect growth, jobs and wages through 2030. Users can compare their own forecasts with the answers of more than 10,000 Americans. The model has three scenarios, which T…

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