# Anthropic's economic model projects 2030 US output up to 32.4% higher with AI, and cognitive-job unemployment near 18% in the extreme case

The median answer in Anthropic's survey of 10,980 US adults matches the middle scenario, in which output rises 8.3% while knowledge-worker wages stay flat.

- Published: 2026-10-14T06:06:44.194Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-10-14/anthropic-s-economic-model-projects-2030-us-output-up-to-32
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts)

Anthropic's Economics team has published an interactive scenario model of how AI could affect US growth, jobs and wages through 2030. A companion working paper, "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI," is credited to Anton Korinek, Charl…

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