# Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, Including One With 11.9% Unemployment

Its modest path has GDP up 1.6% to $34.1 trillion, while the extreme path has output up 32.4% to $44.4 trillion and labor's share of income falling from about 60% to 45%.

- Conviction: 41 / 100 (strengthening)
- 7-day move: +1
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-10-12T14:07:13.413Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/trends/event-anthropic-publishes-three-scenarios-for-the-us-economy-in-20
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: United States

## Recent score history

- 2026-10-11: 39
- 2026-10-12: 41

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Anthropic's 2030 economic model gives a range from 1.6 percent to 32.4 percent added to United States output (2026-10-12): New coverage of Anthropic's 2030 scenarios adds detail: capital takes 54.8% of national income in the extreme path, and nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed, compared with public expectations of about 5%. Reporting is continuing beyond the initial release.
- [confirms] Anthropic's 2030 Economic Model Ranges From a 1.6% GDP Gain to a 32.4% Gain With Capital Taking 54.8% of Income (2026-10-11): New detail on Anthropic's scenarios: in the extreme path, nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed and capital's share reaches 54.8%. This keeps the displacement figures in circulation.

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