# Goldman Sachs Now Expects a Quarter-Point Fed Increase as Oil Adds a Second Inflation Impulse

August consumer inflation held at 3.4% annually, futures put the odds of a hike at 87%, and Brent crude rose 3.1% to $107.87 after Saudi Arabia shut its main pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

- Published: 2026-09-14T05:49:22.021Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/crypto/2026-09-14/goldman-sachs-now-expects-a-quarter-point-fed-increase-as-oi
- Publisher: Polylog (Crypto desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [crypto.news](https://crypto.news/goldman-sachs-backs-25bp-fed-hike-after-cpi/), [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/13/fed-rate-hike-is-about-wall-street-not-inflation-says-economist), [Polylog editors](https://polylog.news)

Goldman Sachs [switched to forecasting a 25 basis point increase at the Federal Reserve meeting](https://crypto.news/goldman-sachs-backs-25bp-fed-hike-after-cpi/) after August consumer price data left annual inflation at 3.4%, with futures pricing the move at 87%. CoinDesk reported that Goldman was [the last of the major banks to withdraw its no-hike call](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/13/fed-rate-hike-is-about-wall-street-not-inflation-says-economist), and quoted an economist who argues the increase answers financial conditions and asset prices rather than the inflation data itself. Both readings point in the same direction for funding costs.

A separate energy shock added a second inflationary pressure. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after drone attacks launched from Iraq, and Brent traded 3.1% higher at $107.87, [close to $108](https://t.me/cointelegraph/72084). The line carries up to about seven million barrels a day to the Red Sea and is the route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, so its closure removes the alternative that made Gulf supply look resilient during the current United States-Iran confrontation. Riyadh has not said how badly the pipeline is damaged or when it reopens.

Digital assets are priced off the same funding cycle. Bitcoin traded near $77,636 and Ether near $2,514 early on Monday according to [the Goku Crypto News market post](https://t.me/GokuCryptoNews/20629), which put Bitcoin dominance at 59%. Total value locked in decentralized finance stands at $88.55 billion, of which Ethereum holds $50.02 billion, and layer-2 networks secure $48.98 billion, with Arbitrum One down 3.5% over seven days and Base up 1.4%.

The combination matters more than either part alone. A central bank tightening into an oil supply shock compresses the multiple on long-duration and leveraged assets at the same time that it raises the cost of the dollar borrowing that funds crypto carry trades. Treasury companies holding Bitcoin against preferred and convertible funding are exposed to that channel first, before spot holders are.

## What this means

Higher front-end rates and a firmer dollar raise the hurdle rate for every leveraged position in crypto and reduce the value of future cash flows, which affects Bitcoin treasury vehicles funded with preferred stock and convertibles before it affects unlevered holders. An oil price near $108 feeds back into next month's inflation data, which makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to stop after one increase. Energy exporters and integrated oil producers gain, while importers in South Asia and Europe face a wider current-account gap and weaker currencies.

## What to watch

- Whether the Federal Reserve's statement this week treats the increase as a single adjustment or opens the door to more, which decides whether front-end rates keep rising.
- How long the Saudi East-West pipeline stays shut, since the length of the closure, not the attack itself, determines how much of the crude price rise persists into inflation data.
- Whether layer-2 total value secured keeps falling alongside spot prices, which would show leverage being withdrawn from on-chain venues rather than simple price revaluation.