Adoption Follows Banking Failure, Not Speculation
Durable bitcoin and stablecoin usage keeps expanding fastest where conventional banking and payment access is weakest, drawing commercial banks in those markets into custody services even as multilateral lenders press governments to limit state exposure.
weakening · confidence 26 · -14 7d · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since October 3, 2026 · updated October 10, 2026
Score history
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 26 · -2 since Oct 9 · ranged 26 to 28
Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.
Why the conviction moved
- Oct 3Strengthened +6
A Cornell survey of 25,880 people found bitcoin is used most where banking works least, and a South African bank began custodying bitcoin for institutions the same week the IMF pressed El Salvador to shrink its programme. Survey-scale evidence plus a commercial bank in an underbanked market entering custody supplies both halves of the thesis — demand from banking gaps, and local banks following it in.
Source trail
Supporting · October 3, 2026
IMF Releases $139 Million to El Salvador While Pressing It to Shrink Its Bitcoin Programme
A Cornell survey of 25,880 people found bitcoin is used most where banking works least, and a South African bank began custodying bitcoin for institutions the same week the IMF pressed El Salvador to shrink its programme. Survey-scale evidence plus a commercial bank in an underbanked market entering custody supplies both halves of the thesis — demand from banking gaps, and local banks following it in.
Bitcoin Magazine (IMF)
Unlock full source trail, score history, and daily updates.
Unlock TrendsAffected regions & assets
Townsquare
Argue the thesis in Townsquare.