# Withdrawal Gates Become the Standard Failure

Whether assets sit with a licensed-in-name exchange or inside a lending contract, the recurring failure mode is a frozen withdrawal against a shortfall nobody funds, so user losses keep arriving through suspended redemptions rather than through visible thefts.

- Conviction: 39 / 100 (strengthening)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-09-14T14:04:09.447Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/crypto/trends/custody-gaps-strand-user-funds
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Global

## Recent score history

- 2026-09-13: 35
- 2026-09-14: 39

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Ledger Users Still Cannot Move ATOM Six Days After the Cosmos Hub Stalled (2026-09-14): Cosmos Hub stopped producing blocks at 18:12 UTC on September 8 and has since recovered, but Ledger users still cannot move ATOM six days on, with no cause or restoration estimate disclosed. The chain works and the assets exist — the failure is an intermediary service path, which is the frozen-access failure mode the thesis identifies rather than a theft.
- [confirms] Blockstream Refuses 10% Bounty for 598 Bitcoin Still Held After Liquid Sidechain Drain (2026-09-12): Liquid bitcoin trades again against reserves covering 85.15% of supply, meaning holders face an unfunded ~15% shortfall while redemption continues at par rather than a visible freeze or theft event. This is the thesis's failure mode — an unfunded gap carried on the books — arriving through a sidechain peg rather than an exchange or lending contract.

1 more evidence entry, the full score history, the conviction-driver timeline, and affected assets are for subscribers: https://polylog.news/pricing