# New Fed Chair Scraps Forward Guidance for a Hawkish Regime

Over the coming months, the Warsh-led Fed's elimination of forward guidance and the dot plot, paired with a hawkish tilt toward hikes, injects real-rate and liquidity uncertainty that pressures risk assets including Bitcoin.

- Conviction: 43 / 100 (weakening)
- 7-day move: -12
- Horizon: Medium term (3-9 months)
- Tracking since: 2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-07-07T14:00:01.950Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/crypto/trends/fed-warsh-ends-forward-guidance
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: United States

## Recent score history

- 2026-07-06: 45
- 2026-07-07: 43

## Recent evidence

- [neutral] Bitcoin Reclaims $63,000 After Its Worst First Half Since 2022 (2026-07-05): Bitcoin reclaimed $63,000 after its worst first half since 2022 as a weak US jobs report cut near-term rate-hike expectations and lifted major tokens, though options desks and veteran traders stayed cautious.
- [confirms] Bitcoin Falls With Gold and Silver as the Hawkish Fed Unwinds the Hedge Trade (2026-06-28): Bitcoin is falling alongside gold and silver as a hawkish Fed unwinds the hedge trade, putting the asset on track for a second straight quarterly loss.

3 more evidence entries, the full score history, the conviction-driver timeline, and affected assets are for subscribers: https://polylog.news/pricing