▼Stablecoin Rules Codify the Run

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 26 · -2 since Oct 9 · ranged 26 to 28

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 3
  Strengthened +3

  The two largest issuers now sit on about $200 billion of Treasury exposure, equal to over 40% of China's holdings decline. The bigger the reserve stack, the larger the forced liquidation that statutory shortfall deadlines would trigger, widening the transmission channel the thesis describes.

• Sep 30
  Strengthened +4

  The Federal Reserve's two-day stablecoin redemption clock binds issuers rather than exchange customers, and a venue snapshot puts roughly $76 billion of stablecoins sitting on trading platforms where the exit depends on the exchange's own policy. That gap is the transmission channel the thesis describes: a hard statutory redemption deadline at the issuer level forces fast reserve liquidation while the largest pool of holders has no enforceable claim on the clock.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 3, 2026

  Tether and Circle Have Added About $200 Billion of Treasury Exposure in Five Years

  The two largest issuers now sit on about $200 billion of Treasury exposure, equal to over 40% of China's holdings decline. The bigger the reserve stack, the larger the forced liquidation that statutory shortfall deadlines would trigger, widening the transmission channel the thesis describes.

  CryptoSlate

• Supporting · September 30, 2026

  The Federal Reserve's two-day stablecoin redemption clock reaches issuers, not exchange customers

  The Federal Reserve's two-day stablecoin redemption clock binds issuers rather than exchange customers, and a venue snapshot puts roughly $76 billion of stablecoins sitting on trading platforms where the exit depends on the exchange's own policy. That gap is the transmission channel the thesis describes: a hard statutory redemption deadline at the issuer level forces fast reserve liquidation while the largest pool of holders has no enforceable claim on the clock.

  CryptoSlate (Fed rules)