# US Government's Seized-Crypto Sales Overhang

The US government will keep moving seized crypto to exchange-linked custody in large tranches, and because the strategic-reserve policy bars selling only some forfeited coins, each transfer revives the question of supply hitting the market. Seized-asset flows become a recurring event-risk for crypto prices and a test of how far reserve policy really goes.

- Conviction: 33 / 100 (weakening)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-10-12T14:07:13.213Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/crypto/trends/us-government-seized-crypto-supply-overhang
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: United States

## Recent score history

- 2026-10-11: 35
- 2026-10-12: 33

## Recent evidence

- [neutral] Bessent says the United States will probably seize $1 billion in Iran-linked crypto this week (2026-10-10): Bessent's statement that the US will probably seize $1 billion in Iran-linked crypto this week would enlarge the government's forfeited holdings. Whether it becomes sellable supply depends on how reserve policy treats sanctions-linked forfeitures, which has not been disclosed.
- [confirms] US Government Moves $1 Billion in Bitfinex-Hack Bitcoin to Unlabeled Wallets With No Sign of a Sale (2026-10-09): The US government moved 12,267 Bitfinex-hack bitcoin (about $1B) to unlabeled wallets, a day after $383M reached Coinbase Prime. There is no sign of a sale yet, but a second large tranche in two days again raises the question of whether the 2025 strategic-reserve order governs what agencies do with seized coins.

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