# Central Banks Behind the Inflation Curve

Major central banks hold policy rates below their own inflation forecasts, keeping real rates negative and currencies weak, which sustains demand for hard assets and forces recurring, costly currency interventions.

- Conviction: 40 / 100 (forming)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-07-31T05:50:34.589Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/central-bank-real-rate-lag
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Global

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1% After Intervening to Slow the Yen's Decline (2026-07-31): The BOJ held at 1% while warning core inflation will run clearly above its 2% target and intervened to slow the yen, a textbook case of a major central bank keeping policy below its own inflation forecast. It broadens the trend beyond the Fed to Japan.