# China Uses Critical Minerals as Targeted Leverage

Beijing keeps using export licensing of rare earths and other critical minerals as country-specific leverage, so supply chains that depend on Chinese inputs carry a political risk premium and allies keep funding alternative sources.

- Conviction: 32 / 100 (weakening)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-10-12T14:07:12.960Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/china-mineral-leverage
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: China, Global

## Recent score history

- 2026-10-11: 34
- 2026-10-12: 32

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] EU trade chief opens Beijing talks as Germany blocks a COSCO purchase (2026-10-08): The EU talks fall days before China's one-year pause on extra rare-earth export restrictions expires. The expiry date works as a renewable bargaining chip that Beijing can use against Europe's new trade-defence push.
- [confirms] Trump asked Xi to lift Chinese export curbs on Japan, and Xi said the dispute should stay separate from US ties (2026-10-08): Citing a newspaper report, TASS says Trump asked Xi to lift Chinese export curbs on Japan, including rare earths, because they threaten US manufacturers that rely on Japanese suppliers, and that Xi said the dispute should stay separate from US ties. Beijing is aiming the curbs at one country while keeping them out of its US relationship, which is the targeted leverage the thesis describes.