# Great Powers Negotiate Ukraine Over Europe's Head

Washington, Moscow and Beijing increasingly treat the end of the Ukraine war as a bargain among themselves, so European governments and Kyiv keep losing influence over the terms while being asked to fund the outcome.

- Conviction: 40 / 100 (forming)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-10-19T14:06:09.516Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/great-power-ukraine-settlement
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Russia / Ukraine, United States, China

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Putin proposes a summit with Trump and Xi in Shenzhen to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war (2026-10-19): The Kremlin confirms talks on a Putin-Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen on the sidelines of next month's APEC summit to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, and Ukraine is not invited. This is the three-power format the thesis describes, although a senior US official says Trump has not agreed.