# Blockade Becomes Iran's Fiscal Crisis

As long as the US blockade holds, Iran's lost oil income will keep turning into budget deficits that push the state toward central-bank financing, rial depreciation and capital flight by domestic savers.

- Conviction: 40 / 100 (forming)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-11-14T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-11-14T14:08:09.551Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/iran-blockade-fiscal-squeeze
- Publisher: Polylog

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Iran drafts next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero (2026-11-14): Iran is drafting next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero, after Trump said a deal was not needed to end the war and the US blockade would stay. Tehran is now planning around the blockade as a lasting fiscal hole, which raises the odds of deficit monetisation and rial pressure. Polymarket puts an end to the blockade by December 31 at just 22%, down 4.9 points on a $389K book.