# Bilateral Arms Control Unravels

The lapse of binding US-Russia nuclear limits without a successor accelerates a multipolar strategic arms race, raising a permanent, under-priced tail risk on global markets.

- Conviction: 40 / 100 (forming)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-07-25T05:46:56.046Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/nuclear-arms-control-breakdown
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: United States, Russia / Ukraine

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Russia Says New START Lapsed Over Washington's Refusal to Respond (2026-07-25): Russia says New START, the last treaty capping US and Russian strategic arsenals, lapsed in February with no extension taking hold after Washington's non-response—the binding-limits lapse the thesis is built on, now formally acknowledged.