# Poland's Split Government

Poland's elected government and president will keep contesting control of the courts and state institutions until the next parliamentary election, producing recurring legal-certainty shocks that add a political risk premium to Polish assets.

- Conviction: 40 / 100 (forming)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-10-31T06:21:04.922Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/poland-institutional-dual-power
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Europe

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Poland's Government Suspends the Constitutional Tribunal's President, and President Nawrocki Calls It a Forcible Seizure (2026-10-31): Poland's government suspended the president of the Constitutional Tribunal, and police deployed at the court in Warsaw. President Nawrocki called it a forcible seizure and cut short a trip to Senegal. The government-president fight over the courts has moved from legal argument to physical control of an institution, which deepens the legal-certainty shock.