# Middle Powers Build Security Blocs Outside Washington

States that once relied on American guarantees keep forming their own mutual defense arrangements, redirecting arms procurement away from Western suppliers and creating overlapping commitments that make regional crises harder to contain.

- Conviction: 82 / 100 (strengthening)
- 7-day move: +19
- Horizon: Medium term (3-9 months)
- Tracking since: 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-08-27T06:30:13.191Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/post-american-security-blocs
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Global

## Recent score history

- 2026-08-27: 82
- 2026-08-28: 85

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Japan Selects an Interceptor Drone Less Than Three Months After Opening Procurement (2026-08-27): Moscow is signalling new bilateral defence agreements with Jakarta in September as Indonesia prepares to commission its first aircraft carrier, widening the supplier pool across the Indo-Pacific. A Russian supply relationship with a non-aligned ASEAN state directly redirects procurement away from Western primes, the substitution channel this thesis tracks.
- [confirms] Russian Air Defences Report Downing 18 Drones Over Voronezh as the CIA Director Warns Moscow Against Striking NATO (2026-08-27): The Collective Security Treaty Organization has put facility protection against drones on the agenda of its autumn exercises, per the day's reporting on Russian air-defence activity. A Russia-led bloc formalising counter-drone doctrine at the exercise level shows non-Western alliances institutionalising capability rather than merely signalling, which is the mechanism by which overlapping commitments harden.

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