# Parallel Oil Trade Outlives Sanctions

More importing states keep routing sanctioned crude through compliant-looking structures and non-dollar payment channels, so restrictions increasingly change the price and the intermediaries rather than the flow of oil itself.

- Conviction: 36 / 100 (weakening)
- Horizon: Emerging (watchlist)
- Tracking since: 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z
- Last updated: 2026-09-14T14:04:09.119Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/trends/sanctioned-oil-parallel-trade
- Publisher: Polylog
- Affected regions: Russia / Ukraine

## Recent score history

- 2026-09-13: 38
- 2026-09-14: 36

## Recent evidence

- [confirms] Indonesia Says It Will Keep Buying Russian Crude Where the Purchases Comply With Rules (2026-09-12): Indonesia said it will keep buying Russian crude where purchases comply with rules, stating the position as its president arrived at the BRICS summit. A large Asian importer publicly framing sanctioned-barrel purchases as rule-compliant is precisely the compliant-looking structure the thesis describes, and doing it at a BRICS venue links the flow to the payment-channel question.