Trends we are tracking
Medium term3-9 months
AI Sovereignty and Export Controls on Frontier Models
72Over the next 3-6 months, governments increasingly treat frontier AI models as strategic national assets — extending export controls to model access itself and backing domestic 'champion' labs as sovereignty plays.
Oversight and Evaluation Lag Accelerating AI Capabilities
67Over the next 3-6 months, evidence mounts that governance, evaluation, and agent-safety methods are failing to keep pace with capability growth, driving investment in interpretability, agent-manipulation benchmarks, and institutional-reform proposals.
AI Inference Shifts to Consumer Devices
57Over the next 3-6 months, smaller efficient architectures and inference-cost optimizations push capable AI off the cloud and onto laptops, phones, and mobile NPUs.
AI Labs Gate Access and Face Accountability on Paid-Tier Promises
48Over the next 3-6 months, frontier labs tighten who can use their consumer products — ID/KYC checks, usage-limit enforcement — while facing legal and customer pushback over what paid tiers actually deliver.