Methodology
Polylog is AI-assisted and source-grounded. It is designed for intelligence synthesis, not as financial, legal, or investment advice. This page explains, plainly, how the briefings and trends are produced and what the labels you see actually mean.
Source gathering
Each edition starts by reading widely across the day's reporting — wire services, primary statements, established outlets, and specialist coverage for the crypto and AI desks. The aim is breadth before synthesis: a story is worth carrying when more than one credible outlet is reporting it, or when it comes from a primary source. We read across outlets rather than republishing any single one.
Source trails
Every synthesized item credits the sources it drew on, shown as a source count and links you can follow back to the original reporting. A source trail is not a citation of one article; it is the set of reporting the synthesis weighed. When a story leans on a single outlet, that shows in the count — fewer sources is itself a signal.
Confidence labels
Contested or developing claims carry a confidence label — an open-source-intelligence read of how likely the claim is to hold up, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. It is a judgment of the claim, never of any outlet. The labels are:
- Corroborated — supported by multiple independent, credible sources.
- Plausible — supported, but still developing or not yet fully corroborated.
- Developing — early or changing; the picture is still forming.
- Unverified — insufficient corroboration so far; treat with caution.
Settled, well-sourced stories (for example a scheduled rate decision or an inflation print) carry no label — the absence of a label means the item was not contested, not that it is unverified. Labels are derived from a single underlying assessment, so the label and any score you see can never disagree.
Conviction scores
Tracked Trends are live narratives we follow over time. Each carries a conviction score from 0 to 100 that reflects source corroboration, the strength of the day's events, and the consistency of reporting across outlets. Scores move day over day as evidence confirms, contradicts, or fails to advance a thesis, and that movement is recorded as the trend's change history. Conviction is a measure of how well-supported a narrative is. It is not a price target, a recommendation, or investment advice.
Contradictory reports
When credible sources disagree, we do not pick a winner and hide the conflict. The disagreement is part of the story: it is reflected in a lower or more cautious confidence label, noted in the analysis where it matters, and — for tracked trends — logged as contradicting evidence that can pull a conviction score down. A thesis that the evidence stops supporting can be marked weakening or invalidated rather than quietly dropped.
AI-assisted synthesis
Polylog's briefings and trend assessments are produced with AI, under editorial oversight of the prompts, sources, and process that generate them. The AI reads the gathered reporting and writes the synthesis; it does not invent sources, and the source trails let you check its work against the originals. We are deliberate about what we do not claim: we do not assert that every individual sentence has been independently fact-checked by a person. Where you need certainty, follow the source trail.
Not financial advice
Polylog is an intelligence and news product. Nothing here is financial, legal, tax, or investment advice, and nothing is a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. Analysis is framed as observation, not as buy/sell/hold calls, price targets, or portfolio suggestions. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.