Warsh's Hawkish Fed Debut Pulls Bitcoin Back Toward $64,000

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, but the framing around the decision turned more restrictive than markets expected. The committee dropped language signaling a bias toward further easing, and nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate increase by the end of 2026, against none in the March projections.

Warsh also abandoned forward guidance, the Federal Reserve's long-standing practice of signaling its likely path, and declined to submit personal rate projections to the dot plot. Bitcoin, which had reached an intraday high of $66,315 on June 17 on hopes tied to easing Middle East tensions, fell back toward $64,000 in early trading.

The decline affected crypto more sharply than stocks, where a signed Iran framework supported share prices. Spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost a combined $111 million as the prospect of near-term rate cuts faded, and total crypto market value held near $2.26 trillion.

The episode is a reminder of how much of bitcoin's price still follows the cost of money set by a central bank rather than its own fixed supply schedule. A Federal Reserve less willing to signal its next move removes a source of support that riskier assets had relied on.