New Fed Chair Scraps Forward Guidance for a Hawkish Regime
Over the coming months, the Warsh-led Fed's elimination of forward guidance and the dot plot, paired with a hawkish tilt toward hikes, injects real-rate and liquidity uncertainty that pressures risk assets including Bitcoin.
weakening · confidence 43 · -12 7d · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since June 18, 2026 · updated July 7, 2026
Score history
Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.
Now 43 · -2 since Jul 6 · ranged 43 to 45
Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.
Why the conviction moved
- Jul 5Context
Bitcoin reclaimed $63,000 after its worst first half since 2022 as a weak US jobs report cut near-term rate-hike expectations and lifted major tokens, though options desks and veteran traders stayed cautious.
- Jun 28Strengthened +5
Bitcoin is falling alongside gold and silver as a hawkish Fed unwinds the hedge trade, putting the asset on track for a second straight quarterly loss.
Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.
Source trail
Context · July 5, 2026
Bitcoin Reclaims $63,000 After Its Worst First Half Since 2022
Bitcoin reclaimed $63,000 after its worst first half since 2022 as a weak US jobs report cut near-term rate-hike expectations and lifted major tokens, though options desks and veteran traders stayed cautious.
CoinDeskSupporting · June 28, 2026
Bitcoin Falls With Gold and Silver as the Hawkish Fed Unwinds the Hedge Trade
Bitcoin is falling alongside gold and silver as a hawkish Fed unwinds the hedge trade, putting the asset on track for a second straight quarterly loss.
CoinDesk
Unlock full source trail, score history, and daily updates.
3 more sources in the full trail.
Unlock Trends