Central Banks Behind the Inflation Curve
Major central banks hold policy rates below their own inflation forecasts, keeping real rates negative and currencies weak, which sustains demand for hard assets and forces recurring, costly currency interventions.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since July 31, 2026 · updated July 31, 2026
Why the conviction moved
- Jul 31Strengthened +3
The BOJ held at 1% while warning core inflation will run clearly above its 2% target and intervened to slow the yen, a textbook case of a major central bank keeping policy below its own inflation forecast. It broadens the trend beyond the Fed to Japan.
Source trail
Supporting · July 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1% After Intervening to Slow the Yen's Decline
The BOJ held at 1% while warning core inflation will run clearly above its 2% target and intervened to slow the yen, a textbook case of a major central bank keeping policy below its own inflation forecast. It broadens the trend beyond the Fed to Japan.
The Japan Times
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