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Health Shocks in Fragile, Resource-Rich States

Recurrent epidemics in conflict-affected, resource-rich states create underpriced tail risks to critical-mineral supply chains and regional stability.

forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since June 22, 2026 · updated June 22, 2026

Supporting evidence

Congo's Ebola Outbreak Surpasses 1,000 Cases as Counts Diverge

World

Congo's Ebola Outbreak Surpasses 1,000 Cases as Counts Diverge

Authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported 1,003 confirmed cases and 254 deaths, a far higher tally than international agencies had recorded days earlier.

1 source
Plausible

The Democratic Republic of Congo reported 1,003 confirmed Ebola cases and 254 deaths, far higher than international agencies had recorded days earlier.

Affected regions and assets for this thesis are coming soon.