Japan Exits Zero Rates
The Bank of Japan's exit from zero interest rates recurs as a global funding shock, unwinding the yen carry trade in stages and pulling Japanese capital home in a way that pressures richly valued assets abroad.
forming · confidence 40 · Medium term (3-9 months) · tracking since July 23, 2026 · updated July 23, 2026
Why the conviction moved
- Jul 23Strengthened +6
The BoJ has settled into its first 1 percent policy rate in three decades, a level that directly threatens the yen carry trade and is changing how Japanese capital is managed. This is the staged funding shock the thesis anticipates, now visibly underway rather than prospective.
Source trail
Supporting · July 23, 2026
Japan Settles Into Its First 1 Percent Policy Rate in Three Decades
The BoJ has settled into its first 1 percent policy rate in three decades, a level that directly threatens the yen carry trade and is changing how Japanese capital is managed. This is the staged funding shock the thesis anticipates, now visibly underway rather than prospective.
Financial Times
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