Bilateral Arms Control Unravels
The lapse of binding US-Russia nuclear limits without a successor accelerates a multipolar strategic arms race, raising a permanent, under-priced tail risk on global markets.
forming · confidence 40 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since July 25, 2026 · updated July 25, 2026
Why the conviction moved
- Jul 25Strengthened +5
Russia says New START, the last treaty capping US and Russian strategic arsenals, lapsed in February with no extension taking hold after Washington's non-response—the binding-limits lapse the thesis is built on, now formally acknowledged.
Source trail
Supporting · July 25, 2026
Russia Says New START Lapsed Over Washington's Refusal to Respond
Russia says New START, the last treaty capping US and Russian strategic arsenals, lapsed in February with no extension taking hold after Washington's non-response—the binding-limits lapse the thesis is built on, now formally acknowledged.
RIA Novosti
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