A US Fuel Blockade Deepens Cuba's Economic Collapse

An oil embargo imposed in January has left Havana without reliable fuel, halting garbage trucks and extending blackouts as the United Nations warns of a worsening humanitarian crisis.

A United States fuel blockade has worsened Cuba's economic crisis, The New York Times reported, leaving garbage uncollected and producing large piles of refuse in Havana as street cleaners and collection trucks run short of fuel.

The shortage is severe. Cuba's energy minister said the country had run out of oil and diesel, according to CNBC, after a blockade that has halted oil shipments since an executive order in January. Parts of Havana have endured blackouts lasting up to 22 hours a day. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has said he is extremely concerned that the situation could worsen or collapse without fuel.

The blockade illustrates the reach of US economic pressure as a tool of policy. Cutting off energy imports degrades not only industry but basic public services such as sanitation and electricity, and the effects fall hardest on ordinary residents.

The case also fits a wider pattern the desk tracks of Washington using economic pressure as a tool short of open war, from Iran to Cuba. The wider consequences, including migration pressure and humanitarian need, tend to extend well beyond the targeted government.

Veracity: Plausible

73/100

If true, who benefits: Havana, which can attribute its collapse to Washington, and US officials, who present the pressure as leverage on the Cuban government.
The nuance: The executive order, fuel shortage, and United Nations alarm are well documented, but the word blockade and the direct causal link are contested by US officials, and Cuba's blackouts predate the January order.

An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.

What this means

Energy blockades are an increasingly used tool of US foreign policy, and Cuba shows how quickly they degrade a small economy and its public services. The humanitarian and migration consequences can reach far beyond the island.

What to watch

Whether any country or entity moves to supply Cuba with fuel despite the blockade.

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