Gulf War Drives Foreign Investors Out of Pakistan's Bond Market

The war in the Gulf is pulling foreign money out of Pakistan, an early sign of how the United States-Iran conflict is redistributing capital away from fragile, import-dependent economies on its periphery.

Dawn reported, citing the State Bank of Pakistan, that Bahrain withdrew its investments from domestic bonds within the first ten days of the current fiscal year, and that there was no inflow of foreign investment into the country's debt during that period. The central bank framed the reversal as a direct consequence of the regional conflict, which has raised risk aversion toward frontier markets and drawn Gulf capital back toward home amid the fighting.

Pakistan is especially exposed. It runs a persistent current-account deficit, relies on external financing to cover its import bill, and had been counting on portfolio inflows to support its currency and reserves. A sudden stop in those inflows, even a modest one, tightens the financing squeeze and can pressure the rupee and domestic borrowing costs.

The episode shows the second-order reach of the Gulf war. A conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz does not need to touch Pakistan directly to hurt it. The change in global risk sentiment and the redirection of Gulf money are enough to move capital away from the economies least able to withstand the loss.