Trump says Hormuz will reopen "very soon" as Iran and Oman near a transit deal

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will open "very soon" and described talks held on August 4 as good, according to TASS. The Russian business daily Kommersant carried the same remarks, reporting that Trump said Washington and Tehran held good negotiations and that Iran would soon allow passage through the waterway.

The mechanics of the arrangement are being worked out through Muscat rather than Washington. Iranian and Omani officials are drafting a plan under which ships would enter the Persian Gulf through a route Iran controls and leave through a route Oman controls, with fees charged for security and environmental protection. Iran's foreign ministry has denied that direct negotiations with the United States are under way, while confirming that the Oman track is progressing. A senior Iranian official said an understanding is within reach if Washington stops interfering, The Hindu reported in its running coverage. Trump has rejected any transit charge, saying that if anyone is going to charge, the United States will charge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is progress but not finality.

Markets have already priced in a large part of the de-escalation. Brent rose toward $85 a barrel on Tuesday after losing ground in the previous session, and US equities closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.3% at a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.1% at 25,913.90, according to market reporting compiled by Zacks.

The economic core of the dispute is the fee. A permanent toll levied by the state that controls the entry lane converts a narrow passage into a source of recurring rent, and that rent would be paid by Asian refiners and European importers on every cargo. The interim deal struck in June reopened the strait and began 60 days of talks. That 60-day period is now close to expiring, which is why each side is describing the same negotiation in incompatible terms.