Trump says Hormuz will reopen "very soon" as Iran and Oman near a transit deal

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will open "very soon" and described talks held on August 4 as good, according to TASS. The Russian business daily Kommersant carried the same remarks, reporting that Trump said Washington and Tehran held good negotiations and that Iran would soon allow passage through the waterway. On Wednesday he put a timetable on it, saying an agreement could be reached that day or the next, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to open the strait was possible within the same window, CNBC reported.

The mechanics of the arrangement are being worked out through Muscat rather than Washington. Iranian and Omani officials are drafting a plan under which ships would enter the Persian Gulf through a route Iran controls and leave through a route Oman controls. A draft of the interim accord sets a 60-day arrangement between Oman and Iran, extendable, under which all inbound traffic uses a northern lane in Iranian waters and all outbound traffic uses a southern lane in Omani waters, Axios reported. No tolls or transit fees would be charged during those 60 days. The parties would clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days, after which that lane would carry traffic in both directions under a permanent arrangement still to be negotiated between Oman and Iran. Washington is aiming to announce the agreement on Wednesday.

Iran's foreign ministry has denied that direct negotiations with the United States are under way, while confirming that the Oman track is progressing. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the bilateral talks with Oman are focused on establishing safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes that uphold sovereign rights and address the national security concerns of both countries, the Associated Press reported, which also said any deal is tied to lifting the US blockade of Iran's ports. A senior Iranian official said an understanding is within reach if Washington stops interfering, The Hindu reported in its running coverage. Trump has rejected any transit charge, saying that if anyone is going to charge, the United States will charge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is progress but not finality.

Markets have already priced in a large part of the de-escalation. Brent traded below $79 a barrel on Wednesday and West Texas Intermediate near $75, a third consecutive session of declines that took the weekly loss past 10%, per Trading Economics. US equities closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.3% at a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.1% at 25,913.90, according to market reporting compiled by Zacks.

The economic core of the dispute is the fee, and the draft defers it rather than settles it. A permanent toll levied by the state that controls the entry lane converts a narrow passage into a source of recurring rent, and that rent would be paid by Asian refiners and European importers on every cargo. Suspending fees for 60 days pushes that question into the permanent negotiation between Muscat and Tehran. The interim deal struck in June reopened the strait and began 60 days of talks before collapsing in July in a dispute over shipping routes, and the deadline it set expires in about two weeks, which is why each side is describing the same negotiation in incompatible terms.