Polylog

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Macro

The Dollar's Reach Grew This Week While Long-Dated Treasuries Lost Standing, and the Erosion Thesis Treats Them as One Trend

Gold is down more than 20% since the Iran war began and the dollar rose alongside yields near their 2002 highs, so the main risk for non-US holders is a political decision to cut their access to dollars, not a fall in the dollar's value.

3 sources

What to watch

More trends →
  1. 01

    The October 14 US consumer price index and how the dollar and the 30-year yield move together afterward: a rise in both supports the thesis, and rising yields with a falling dollar would refute it.

  2. 02

    Whether the $1 billion Iranian crypto seizure Bessent expects this week goes through a stablecoin issuer freeze, and whether European banks serving the International Criminal Court close its accounts.

Executive summary

Washington lifted sanctions on Russian diesel and imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court in the same week, and the 30-year US Treasury yield ended Friday near 5.60%. This Sunday's opinion argues that the dollar's reach is growing even as long-dated US government bonds lose standing.