Polylog

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Macro

A 5.68% Thirty-Year Yield Shows Buyers Leaving Long-Dated US Debt, Not the Dollar

Stablecoin issuers have bought about $200 billion of short-dated US government debt in five years, more than 40% of China's reduction, and this week gold fell and the dollar firmed while long yields rose.

5 sources

What to watch

More trends →
  1. 01

    Demand at the 10-year auction on October 7 and the 30-year auction on October 8, and whether the dollar strengthens or weakens on the days the results are published.

  2. 02

    Whether Brent stays below $100 as the G7 reserve barrels arrive, and whether long Treasury yields fall with it or stay near their 24-year high.

Executive summary

This week the 30-year United States Treasury yield touched 5.68%, its highest in 24 years. In the same week the dollar firmed and gold fell for a second week. Our Sunday opinion argues that buyers are leaving long-dated American debt, not the dollar, and that the 10-year and 30-year bond auctions on October 7 and 8 will test that view.