Finland Plays Down the Risk of Russian Attack While Buying Israeli Air Defence

Finland's president, Alexander Stubb, told Germany's Bild newspaper that he does not believe Russia would attack a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), saying it would make no sense to test the alliance's resolve. Western officials have warned separately about a rising risk of Russian operations below the threshold of open war.

Finland's spending contrasts with its public statements. Israeli media reported that Helsinki has signed an agreement running to 2034 to acquire air-defence systems worth €317 million, and that Finland's defence ministry has withheld details of the cooperation from public disclosure. The report notes the contrast with criticism from Finnish officials of Israeli conduct in Gaza. Buying from an Israeli supplier while criticising Israeli policy is the kind of separation between statements and procurement that has become common across Europe.

Russian state media carried the domestic Finnish opposition to Stubb's line. TASS quoted a member of the Finnish national-conservative Freedom Alliance party saying Finns are unhappy with Stubb's approach to Russia and that a president's role is to maintain good relations with everyone internationally. At the other extreme, Israeli reporting quoted a senior adviser to President Vladimir Putin calling Britain "evil number one" and threatening strikes on targets in the United Kingdom, while European officials quoted in the same account said they see no evidence Russia intends to attack NATO territory.

Three different positions exist at the same time. Helsinki says the risk is low, Moscow's rhetoric says the risk is high, and the procurement budgets of European states are being written as though the risk is real and durable.