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Morning Edition · Monday, September 14, 2026Published at 2:22 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's Economists Put a Range on AI's Effect on Output and Jobs Through 2030
Across three scenarios, United States gross domestic product ends 2030 between 1.6% and 32.4% above a path without AI, with capital's share of income rising to as much as 54.8%.
Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future on September 9, an interactive explorer built on a technical report by Anton Korinek and colleagues. It sets out three paths, labeled modest, substantial, and extreme, a…
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AI and the Capital Share of National Income
As AI automates cognitive work, the split of national income between capital and labor becomes a recurring macro variable rather than a slow-moving constant, and expect repeated forecasts, official measurement attempts, and redistributive policy proposals built around it.
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