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Morning Edition · Saturday, September 19, 2026Published at 2:16 AM EDT · New York
AI Labs Are Now Publishing the Macroeconomic Forecasts That Policymakers Will Cite
Anthropic modeled US output reaching $36.3 trillion by 2030 in one scenario and cognitive unemployment of 17.9 percent in another, while Google added Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion to its economics advisory group.
Anthropic's economics team published three scenarios for how AI reshapes growth, employment and wages by 2030, built on a technical report by Anton Korinek and co-authors. In the modest case, gains resemble those from the internet. In the s…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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