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Morning Edition · Monday, September 21, 2026Published at 2:21 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the 2030 Economy, Including One With 11.9 Percent Unemployment
The extreme case pairs 15.4 percent annual growth with a fall in labour's share of income from roughly 60 percent to 45 percent, and the authors attach no probabilities to any scenario.
Anthropic's economics team has published a formal model of how artificial intelligence could reshape growth, employment and wages by 2030, structured as three scenarios it labels modest, substantial and extreme. The interactive version lets…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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