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Morning Edition · Wednesday, September 23, 2026Published at 7:26 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's Economic Model Puts 2030 US Output Between $34.1 Trillion and $44.4 Trillion Depending on AI Adoption
In the most aggressive of three scenarios, annual growth reaches 15 percent while unemployment among knowledge workers climbs to roughly 18 percent against under 4 percent for everyone else.
Anthropic's economics team has published an interactive model of how AI may affect growth, jobs and wages through 2030, based on a technical report by Korinek and colleagues. It presents three scenarios and explicitly declines to predict wh…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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