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Morning Edition · Friday, September 25, 2026Published at 2:22 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's Own Economic Model Puts 2030 US Output Between $34 Trillion and $44 Trillion
The most productive of its three scenarios also carries knowledge-work unemployment near 18 percent, and the survey of more than 10,000 Americans that accompanies it sits closer to the mild case.
Anthropic's economics team has published a model of how artificial intelligence could reshape United States output, employment and wages by 2030, with an interactive explorer built on a technical report on economic scenarios for transformat…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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