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Morning Edition · Saturday, September 26, 2026Published at 2:26 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic Publishes Three 2030 Economic Scenarios, With Knowledge-Work Employment Falling 21.5% in the Middle Case
The model's extreme path has United States output growing 15% a year while labor's share of national income drops from 60% to 45.2%, and the authors attach no probabilities.
Anthropic's economics team has released an interactive model of how AI could affect growth, jobs, and wages in the United States by 2030, presented as three scenarios rather than a forecast. The framework represents the economy as bundles o…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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