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Morning Edition · Tuesday, September 29, 2026Published at 2:12 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, With Labor's Income Share Falling to 45 Cents
Its extreme case projects near 15 percent annual growth, $44.4 trillion of output, and knowledge-worker pay down more than 10 percent.
Anthropic's economics team released an interactive scenario explorer, built on a technical report that models how AI capability, autonomy and adoption feed through to United States output, employment, wages, and the split of income between…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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