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Morning Edition · Thursday, October 8, 2026Published at 2:25 AM EDT · New York
Anthropic's economics team models US GDP in 2030 at 1.6% to 32.4% above a no-AI baseline, with labor's share of income falling to as low as 45%
In the most extreme of its three scenarios unemployment approaches 12%, and wages for physical occupations rise in every scenario while screen-based knowledge work takes the losses.
Anthropic's economics team has published an interactive model of how AI may affect the US economy through 2030, covering growth, jobs and wages. Users can explore the scenarios, enter their own forecasts and compare them with responses from…
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Part of a tracked trend
Frontier Labs Publish the Macro Case for Their Own Technology
AI labs increasingly publish formal macroeconomic scenarios — GDP paths, labor-share trajectories, displacement estimates — that become reference inputs to fiscal and regulatory debate, so expect recurring lab-authored economic modeling, contested replication by academic and official forecasters, and policy anchored on numbers the vendors themselves produced.
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