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AI-Assisted Influence Operations Become Routine

State-linked information operations keep industrializing content production with commercial language models and adapting specifically to defeat AI-detection heuristics, so provider takedown reports become a recurring and contested source of attribution that platforms and regulators cannot independently verify.

weakening · confidence 36 · Emerging (watchlist) · tracking since August 26, 2026 · updated August 28, 2026

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Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Aug 27 · 38Aug 28 · 36

Now 36 · -2 since Aug 27 · ranged 36 to 38

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Why the conviction moved

  • Aug 26
    Strengthened +6

    OpenAI banned Russia-origin accounts that used VPNs to reach ChatGPT from a blocked country to run a fake Israeli think tank and a pro-Russia 'Sovereignty Index,' explicitly instructing the model to strip machine-written tells, and rated the campaign category three of six on Brookings' Breakout Scale. Prompting specifically to defeat AI-detection heuristics is the adaptation step the thesis predicts, and the provider's own scale rating is again the only attribution outsiders can check.

Source trail

  • Supporting · August 26, 2026

    OpenAI Bans Russia-Origin Accounts Running a Fake Israeli Think Tank and a Pro-Russia 'Sovereignty Index'

    OpenAI banned Russia-origin accounts that used VPNs to reach ChatGPT from a blocked country to run a fake Israeli think tank and a pro-Russia 'Sovereignty Index,' explicitly instructing the model to strip machine-written tells, and rated the campaign category three of six on Brookings' Breakout Scale. Prompting specifically to defeat AI-detection heuristics is the adaptation step the thesis predicts, and the provider's own scale rating is again the only attribution outsiders can check.

    OpenAI

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Affected regions & assets

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