▲AI Hype Cycles and Funding Narratives

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 100

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 12
  Strengthened +2

  Sam Altman says AI became smarter than humans this year, a capability claim offered without verification. Andrej Karpathy, now on Anthropic's pretraining team, estimates that about 6 billion people have barely used a language model while about 5,000 people live in a different AI world. The distance between lab leaders' rhetoric and actual public adoption is exactly what scrutiny of these narratives targets.

• Oct 11
  Strengthened +2

  Per Axios, the labs plan to brief Congress now so they can shape the crackdown they expect after an attack. This is a lab using a cautionary narrative to shape the rules before an event happens, which is the kind of narrative strategy the thesis expects to draw scrutiny.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 12, 2026

  Altman says AI became smarter than humans this year as Karpathy describes a steep gap in public understanding

  Sam Altman says AI became smarter than humans this year, a capability claim offered without verification. Andrej Karpathy, now on Anthropic's pretraining team, estimates that about 6 billion people have barely used a language model while about 5,000 people live in a different AI world. The distance between lab leaders' rhetoric and actual public adoption is exactly what scrutiny of these narratives targets.

  AI Post (Telegram)

• Supporting · October 11, 2026

  OpenAI and Anthropic Executives Rehearse the Political Response to an AI-Driven Cyberattack They Expect Within a Year

  Per Axios, the labs plan to brief Congress now so they can shape the crackdown they expect after an attack. This is a lab using a cautionary narrative to shape the rules before an event happens, which is the kind of narrative strategy the thesis expects to draw scrutiny.

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