▲Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, Including One With 11.9% Unemployment

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 41 · +2 since Oct 11 · ranged 39 to 41

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 12
  Strengthened +2

  New coverage of Anthropic's 2030 scenarios adds detail: capital takes 54.8% of national income in the extreme path, and nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed, compared with public expectations of about 5%. Reporting is continuing beyond the initial release.

• Oct 11
  Strengthened +2

  New detail on Anthropic's scenarios: in the extreme path, nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed and capital's share reaches 54.8%. This keeps the displacement figures in circulation.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 12, 2026

  Anthropic's 2030 economic model gives a range from 1.6 percent to 32.4 percent added to United States output

  New coverage of Anthropic's 2030 scenarios adds detail: capital takes 54.8% of national income in the extreme path, and nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed, compared with public expectations of about 5%. Reporting is continuing beyond the initial release.

  Anthropic Research

• Supporting · October 11, 2026

  Anthropic's 2030 Economic Model Ranges From a 1.6% GDP Gain to a 32.4% Gain With Capital Taking 54.8% of Income

  New detail on Anthropic's scenarios: in the extreme path, nearly one in five knowledge workers is unemployed and capital's share reaches 54.8%. This keeps the displacement figures in circulation.

  Anthropic Research