▼Formal Verification Becomes the Trust Layer for AI Output

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 37 · -2 since Sep 13 · ranged 37 to 39

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Sep 12
  Strengthened +5

  OpenAI says an internal model produced a claimed finite-time blowup proof in 88 hours and formalized it in Lean, making the machine-checkable artifact — not the prose argument — the thing reviewers can actually verify. The Clay Institute's refusal to credit it turns on scope (an external forcing term outside the prize problem), not on the Lean check, showing formalization settles correctness while leaving problem-statement fidelity as the remaining human judgment.

• Sep 9
  Strengthened +5

  OpenAI says roughly 10,000 parallel agents ran 88 hours to produce a Lean-formalized finite-time singularity proof related to Navier-Stokes, while the Clay Mathematics Institute still lists the problem as open and mathematicians contest the claim. The dispute itself shows the mechanism: the Lean artifact, not the press release, is what the community argues over, making machine-checkability the de facto arbiter of AI-generated mathematics.

• Sep 9
  Strengthened +8

  Anthropic says a Claude run produced the first machine-checked proof of Fermat's Last Theorem in eleven days, writing 13 million lines of Lean and about 29,500 supporting theorems against a funded human project scheduled through 2029. Unlike the contested Navier-Stokes claim, the output is a checkable Lean artifact, which is exactly the shift the thesis predicts: correctness gets settled by an automated checker rather than by peer reading.

Source trail

• Supporting · September 12, 2026

  Clay Institute Declines to Call Navier-Stokes Solved After OpenAI's AI Proof Claim

  OpenAI says an internal model produced a claimed finite-time blowup proof in 88 hours and formalized it in Lean, making the machine-checkable artifact — not the prose argument — the thing reviewers can actually verify. The Clay Institute's refusal to credit it turns on scope (an external forcing term outside the prize problem), not on the Lean check, showing formalization settles correctness while leaving problem-statement fidelity as the remaining human judgment.

  Clay Mathematics Institute

• Supporting · September 9, 2026

  Anthropic Says Claude Produced the First Machine-Checked Proof of Fermat's Last Theorem in Eleven Days

  Anthropic says a Claude run produced the first machine-checked proof of Fermat's Last Theorem in eleven days, writing 13 million lines of Lean and about 29,500 supporting theorems against a funded human project scheduled through 2029. Unlike the contested Navier-Stokes claim, the output is a checkable Lean artifact, which is exactly the shift the thesis predicts: correctness gets settled by an automated checker rather than by peer reading.

  Anthropic