▲Frontier Model Price War

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 100

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Oct 29
  Strengthened +2

  Google priced Gemini 4 Carbon at half the price of Claude Opus 5.5, and its own benchmark table puts Carbon one point ahead on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. That is another below-rival price on a model of equal or better claimed capability, though the cut means little until general access opens.

• Oct 28
  Strengthened +3

  In its IPO filing, Anthropic says customers can switch models easily and that new compute will compress its margins. This is the market leader stating in a legal document that switching costs are low and margins are under pressure, which is the condition that keeps below-rival pricing moves coming.

Showing the last 2 days. Unlock the full record.

Source trail

• Supporting · October 29, 2026

  Google ships Gemini 4 Carbon to cyber defenders first, at half the price of Claude Opus 5.5

  Google priced Gemini 4 Carbon at half the price of Claude Opus 5.5, and its own benchmark table puts Carbon one point ahead on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. That is another below-rival price on a model of equal or better claimed capability, though the cut means little until general access opens.

  Google DeepMind

• Supporting · October 28, 2026

  Anthropic's IPO Filing Shows $16.3 Billion in Half-Year Revenue and Hundreds of Billions in Fixed Compute Contracts

  In its IPO filing, Anthropic says customers can switch models easily and that new compute will compress its margins. This is the market leader stating in a legal document that switching costs are low and margins are under pressure, which is the condition that keeps below-rival pricing moves coming.

  Anthropic News