▲Frontier Labs Build Their Own Inference Silicon

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 47 · -2 since Aug 27 · ranged 45 to 47

Showing the last few days. Unlock full score history.

Why the conviction moved

• Aug 27
  Strengthened +7

  OpenAI published its first public benchmarks for the 700-watt Jalapeño inference chip, claiming 1.5 to 1.9 times the throughput per kilowatt of Nvidia's GB300. A frontier lab moving from disclosing a chip program to publishing comparative performance numbers signals the part is close enough to deployment to be defended in public, not a paper design.

• Aug 26
  Strengthened +7

  OpenAI published its first benchmarks for Jalapeño, the 700-watt inference chip co-developed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x Nvidia's throughput per kilowatt against 1,200W and 1,400W Nvidia rack systems on GPT-OSS 120B, DeepSeek R1 670B and Kimi K2.5 1T. Moving from announced silicon to published head-to-head numbers is the step that lets a lab justify shifting its highest-volume inference off merchant GPUs, and it hands Broadcom rather than Nvidia the design value.

Source trail

• Supporting · August 27, 2026

  OpenAI Publishes First Benchmarks for Its Jalapeño Inference Chip Against Nvidia Systems

  OpenAI published its first public benchmarks for the 700-watt Jalapeño inference chip, claiming 1.5 to 1.9 times the throughput per kilowatt of Nvidia's GB300. A frontier lab moving from disclosing a chip program to publishing comparative performance numbers signals the part is close enough to deployment to be defended in public, not a paper design.

  AI Post (Telegram)

• Supporting · August 26, 2026

  OpenAI Publishes First Jalapeño Benchmarks, Claiming Up to 1.9 Times Nvidia's Throughput Per Kilowatt

  OpenAI published its first benchmarks for Jalapeño, the 700-watt inference chip co-developed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x Nvidia's throughput per kilowatt against 1,200W and 1,400W Nvidia rack systems on GPT-OSS 120B, DeepSeek R1 670B and Kimi K2.5 1T. Moving from announced silicon to published head-to-head numbers is the step that lets a lab justify shifting its highest-volume inference off merchant GPUs, and it hands Broadcom rather than Nvidia the design value.

  OpenAI