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US-China Technology Decoupling

The US and China keep widening the separation of their technology sectors from chips toward platforms, models, and corporate access, and each new designation or countersuit pushes firms to pick a side and rebuild supply chains around the bloc they serve.

weakening · confidence 47 · 0 7d · Short term (next 30 days) · tracking since June 28, 2026 · updated July 7, 2026

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Jul 6 · 49Jul 7 · 47

Now 47 · -2 since Jul 6 · ranged 47 to 49

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Why the conviction moved

  • Jul 5
    Strengthened +7

    Anthropic cut off Claude Code access inside China citing distillation of its models, and Alibaba retaliated by banning the tool, pushing firms to pick a bloc.

  • Jul 1
    Strengthened +3

    A developer alleges Anthropic's coding agent may flag China-linked API routes, an example of frontier tooling drawing bloc-based distinctions along the US-China divide.

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Source trail

  • Supporting · July 5, 2026

    Anthropic Cuts Off Claude Code in China Over Distillation Claims, Alibaba Bans It Back

    Anthropic cut off Claude Code access inside China citing distillation of its models, and Alibaba retaliated by banning the tool, pushing firms to pick a bloc.

    AI Post
  • Supporting · July 1, 2026

    Claim That Claude Code Marks Requests Reopens the Question of Agent Oversight

    A developer alleges Anthropic's coding agent may flag China-linked API routes, an example of frontier tooling drawing bloc-based distinctions along the US-China divide.

    thereallo.dev (Hacker News)

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4 more sources in the full trail.

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Affected regions & assets

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