Morning Edition · Monday, June 22, 2026Published at 6:29 AM EDT · New York

Prediction Markets Doubt the CLARITY Act Despite Talk of Imminent Passage

The prevailing narrative holds that the US crypto market-structure bill is closer to becoming law than at any earlier point, but bettors put the odds of passage in 2026 near 55%, a gap between the narrative and what bettors actually expect.

The prevailing narrative holds that the CLARITY Act, the US bill meant to settle how crypto assets are regulated and to divide authority between agencies, is nearer to becoming law than at any earlier point. Prediction markets disagree. Bet…