Morning Edition · Thursday, July 16, 2026Published at 1:28 AM EDT · New York
Stanford Study Says Polymarket's Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets Moved $8.2 Million to Manipulators
Researchers found the short-window contracts create incentives for sophisticated traders to nudge spot prices and profit at the expense of ordinary participants.
A study by researchers at Stanford University and Simon Fraser University found that Polymarket's five-minute bitcoin prediction contracts have created incentives for sophisticated traders to manipulate spot prices and profit at the expense…
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Prediction-Market Settlement Design Invites Manipulation
Short-horizon prediction contracts that settle on thin reference prices keep rewarding manipulation over forecasting, exposing a recurring flaw as on-chain betting venues scale.
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