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Morning Edition · Sunday, October 11, 2026Published at 1:46 AM EDT · New York
CFTC Proposes Defining Event Contracts as Swaps and Excludes Sportsbook and Casino Wagers
The companion rule on casino-style products takes effect on publication, but neither rule settles whether states can block prediction markets under their gambling laws.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published a proposed rule on October 9 that would classify certain event contracts as swaps under its oversight. These include contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi that settle on sport…
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Prediction Markets Become a Federal-State Jurisdiction Fight
As event contracts grow, the CFTC and state gambling regulators will keep contesting who governs them. The likely result is repeated court rulings, state cease-and-desist actions and federal rulemaking that draw a recurring line between swaps and gambling. Prediction-market operators' addressable market and product scope will be set by how that line holds, not by demand.
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