Morning Edition · Saturday, October 17, 2026Published at 1:38 AM EDT · New York
The order created, then immediately suspended, a 500% tariff on Russian goods and up to 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy such as India and China, while bitcoin held near $82,100.

President Donald Trump waived key Russia sanctions on Friday, along with tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas. The measures were days away from taking effect under a law he signed last month. US News reports that the executive order both created and blocked a 500% tariff on Russian goods and the secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy or help Moscow evade oil sanctions. The order cites a certification to Congress that the waiver is "in the national interests of the United States."
NBC News reports that the waiver followed by one week an agreement Trump announced with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase Russian diesel supplies to US and global markets. Trump said that deal was meant to lower costs. Coverage from Indian outlets focused on which countries would avoid the tariffs. Swarajya noted that the suspended tariffs would have fallen hardest on India and China, the largest buyers of Russian crude.
The energy and equity backdrop explains the choice. Brent crude rose above $111 on October 16. The Nasdaq 100 closed the week down 5.5%, which Cointelegraph called its largest weekly decline since April 2025, and it now sits 7% below a high set ten days earlier. Television host Jim Cramer said oil and a possible hedge fund blowup made it one of the worst days of the year. No fund has been named, and the claim remains unconfirmed.
Crypto moved less than equities. CoinDesk reported bitcoin little changed near $82,100 while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on rates, and celestia rose 16%. CoinShares told Bitcoin Magazine that hot inflation data is putting bitcoin under pressure, but that a "difficult" market is different from a bearish one.
Part of a tracked trend
US Secondary Sanctions Bend to Oil Prices
Washington's threats of secondary sanctions and tariffs against large buyers of Russian energy will keep being waived or diluted whenever oil prices rise, so these measures work as bargaining positions and not as enforced policy, which benefits India, China and Russia.
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More from this edition
Indian and Chinese refiners keep buying discounted Russian crude without a 100% US tariff, and Russia keeps its export revenue along with a diesel license that runs to April 2027. The White House gains a lever on fuel prices before Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India.
The CBS, Newsweek and Indian reports confirm the waiver itself, while Fox Business describes it as covering "many" measures under the Graham Act, not all of them. The energy-price motive is the administration's account. Twelve senators from both parties called the diesel deal "a gift to our adversary," and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky called it an investment in the war.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
The waiver shows the limit of US leverage. Enforcing 100% tariffs on India and China would push oil prices even higher at a time when Brent is already above $111 and US equities are falling, so Washington chose cheaper energy over punishing Moscow's customers. Russia, India and China benefit, because the threat of secondary tariffs now looks negotiable rather than binding. That is consistent with the desk's thesis that Russia retains its leverage in Eurasia and that India acts on its own energy interests. For crypto, the main transmission channel runs through inflation. Oil above $110 feeds the headline price indexes that CoinShares already describes as hot, and that leaves less room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The 2022 episode is instructive. An energy-driven inflation spike that year preceded aggressive monetary tightening and a deep drawdown in crypto. The likelier outcome over the coming weeks is that bitcoin keeps trading in line with liquidity-sensitive equities rather than acting as a hedge, while sanctions on Russian energy stay unenforced as long as oil prices remain high. This forecast would be wrong if Brent falls back quickly after the diesel deal adds supply, or if Congress moves to override the waiver.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Polylog editors · US News · NBC News · Swarajya · CoinDesk · Bitcoin Magazine
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