▼Bitcoin's Security Budget Becomes a Live Design Question

Score history

Daily conviction score, 0 to 100. Higher means the thesis is more strongly corroborated.

Now 38 · -2 since Nov 11 · ranged 38 to 40

Why the conviction moved

• Nov 11
  Strengthened +1

  The merged signature-aggregation drafts would cut transaction fees by up to 27%. That shrinks the fee revenue miners will depend on as the subsidy falls, so the upgrade's efficiency gain feeds directly into the question of how miners get paid.

• Nov 11
  Strengthened +3

  One new paper finds 'useful work' mining designs could increase energy use. A second proposes splitting block rewards so miners stop undercutting each other once fees replace the subsidy. Meanwhile Canaan's rig sales fell 96% year on year, a sign of stress on miner economics, while reward-structure redesign stays live in research.

Source trail

• Supporting · November 11, 2026

  Bitcoin Developers Merge Three Signature-Aggregation Proposals That Could Cut Fees by Up to 27%

  The merged signature-aggregation drafts would cut transaction fees by up to 27%. That shrinks the fee revenue miners will depend on as the subsidy falls, so the upgrade's efficiency gain feeds directly into the question of how miners get paid.

  CryptoSlate

• Supporting · November 11, 2026

  New Research Finds Bitcoin Mining Built Around Useful Work Could Increase Energy Use

  One new paper finds 'useful work' mining designs could increase energy use. A second proposes splitting block rewards so miners stop undercutting each other once fees replace the subsidy. Meanwhile Canaan's rig sales fell 96% year on year, a sign of stress on miner economics, while reward-structure redesign stays live in research.

  arXiv (Proof of Useful Work)